STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 28, 2016

71 Days to California


Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
• Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1037 (Clinton +230). 
• Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-128½).
• 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
• Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).

Next Primary: April 5

• Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
• Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.

 

Comments
Hillary got licked on Saturday; there's really no way to spin it, except to say we knew it was coming. She was up against a "perfect storm" of conditions: open caucuses in mostly white states with affluent liberals. 

Even so, she could have performed better, as she did in Iowa by putting a laser-sharp focus on that state before its election. But she chose to save her money, spending only $54,000 in Washington. Bernie outspent her by a factor of 26 in that state. So he won big. You'd still rather have Hillary's numbers today than Bernie's numbers, but Bernie took a big step toward her on Saturday.

Now that's done. It's behind us, and we turn our attention to the remainder of the primary. Here's a quick look ahead:

Of the 22 contests remaining, 4 are caucuses, 9 are open, semi-open, or semi-closed primaries, and 9 are closed primaries.

Bernie is 10 for 14 in caucuses. The caucuses that remain give a total of 88 delegates.

Bernie is 4 for 17 in open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries (and there's really not a huge difference here, except that semis keep out Republicans). The open and semi-* primaries that remain give a total of 882 delegates.

Bernie is 1 for 4 in closed primaries, the one being Democrats Abroad. The closed primaries that remain give a total of 759 delegates.  

The next state to vote, Wisconsin, is an open primary. I'm still doing my best to avoid sharing polling data and projections, but let's just say that we can win it, and should pour our hearts into volunteering in and for the Badger state over the next 8 days.



How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day  
A Bernie supporter tried to annoy me with bird puns, but toucan play at that game!