STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 15, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,235, Sanders 580 (Clinton +655).
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 775, Sanders 552 (Clinton +221). 
• Versus Targets: Clinton 775/685 (+90), Sanders 552/642 (-90).
• 2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
• Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
• March 12 (MP):  Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
• Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).

Next Primary: TODAY

• Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
• Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.

 

Comments
Nate Silver just introduced me to a nifty new word: "retrodiction." It's a prediction made about a past event, as if the result was not known. He performed a regressive analysis of past states, basing his demographic model on actual votes cast so far, and the results were mostly pretty close to the end results in most states -- specifically, he had Hillary three points ahead in Michigan, five points off of the actual result, which is more than any of the pollsters could say.

Applying this regressive analysis to today's races, and ignoring the polls, Nate gives Bernie a 42% chance to win Ohio, 34% to win Illinois, and 33% to win Missouri.

It's not perfect, as we know that Missouri is the race that Bernie is most likely to win today. But it gives a reasonable starting point for our expectations. The model, by the way, gives Bernie a 4% chance to win both Florida and North Carolina.

But remember: it's not states that count, it's delegates. It's actually possible to lose all 50 states and still win the nomination, provided the overseas territories and D.C. vote for you in high enough margins. So don't even look at the states tonight, look at the delegates. Based on the demographic model, Hillary's magic number is 365, and Bernie's is 326; whoever beats their number has won the delegates they need from the day. (For those who prefer to count on their fingers, 346 delegates is the point at which a candidate has achieved a majority for the day.)

If there's anything further you can do to get out the vote today, do it. If not, send good thoughts toward Hillary. 


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. 


Iditarod Update
Dallas Seavey has won the 44th Iditarod, pulling into Nome at 02:20 this morning. Mitch Seavey, his dad, finished second at 03:05. Aliy Zirkle finished third at 09:42. (Brent Sass's dogs were too tired to leave White Mountain, so he's still there, unfortunately. Wade Marrs is on track for 4th place, followed by Peter Kaiser.)