STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 10, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,221, Sanders 571 (Clinton +650).
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 772, Sanders 549 (Clinton +223). 
• Versus Targets: Clinton 772/682 (+90), Sanders 549/639 (-90).
• 2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
• Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).

Next Primary: March 15

• Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
• Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
• Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.
  

 

Comments
The plot slightly thickens! A recalculation in Michigan changed the delegate count to Bernie 67, Hillary 63. This is exactly their targets. I would not have expected to see that in a big state like Michigan, but there it is. We have a tie versus targets. (This is actually the third state that has produced a tie versus targets; the folks who put the demographic model together knew what they were doing!)

The consensus among the polling community seems to be that the Michigan snafu was the result of many different factors. Most of them probably have a single source of error: Pollsters rely partly on the results of past elections to serve as a model for the present one, and in the 2008 primary, for reasons I won't go into here (let's just say it's Howard Dean's fault), Barack Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan. So it's not a reliable model for anything.

This makes it more likely that Michigan was a one-off fluke, and that the polling in other states remains more or less valid. March 15 will give us an idea -- Ohio and Illinois are Midwestern states with open primaries, like Michigan. 


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. 


Iditarod Update
Jeff King out of Cripple at 03:05; Dallas Seavey in at 15:51 yesterday, Noah Burmeister at 18:59 (most mushers are declaring their mandatory 24-hour rest stops near here).