STATE OF THE PRIMARY -- March 18, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
• Pledged Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,147, Sanders 830 (Clinton +317). 
• Versus Targets: Clinton 1,147/1,050 (+97), Sanders 825/968 (-138).
• 2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 42.4% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 15 (AP): Clinton 379, Sanders 276 (Clinton +103); 36 not yet allocated.
• Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+14), Sanders 276/326 (-50).

Next Primary: March 22

• Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
• Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.

 

Comments
The NCAA thing isn't working out, so it's back to puns for now.

The media outlets have officially called Missouri for Hillary, and Bernie is not requesting a recount (which strikes me as odd if he's fighting for every delegate), so Hillary has officially swept all five of the March 15 states. This was always possible given the polls and projections, but I don't think anyone on the Hillary side wanted to jinx the whole thing by voicing the possibility. I myself was privately predicting three out of five for her!

MattTX, the Bernie supporter at DailyKos who runs his own extremely detailed analysis of the primary, released a new set of benchmarks for a narrow Bernie victory. He released this after Michigan but before March 15. Here's how they stacked up.

• Florida: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 65, 16 unallocated.
• Illinois: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 70, 13 unallocated.
• Missouri: Benchmark 38, Bernie has 34, 3 unallocated.
• North Carolina: Benchmark 36, Bernie has 45, 3 unallocated.
• Ohio: Benchmark 67, Bernie has 62, 1 unallocated.

Doesn't look bad at all for Bernie, does it? This, however, comes from a dynamic model which assumes that Bernie's national numbers are lousy now, but will improve after March 15. In short, Bernie will end up with 1,976 pledged delegates, 8 more than Hillary, and will require Puerto Rico and the other territories to make up the difference.

Plausible? Depends on where you're sitting, I suppose. MattTX thinks it's plausible, albeit quite unlikely. But his entire case for plausibility boils down to the Michigan snafu. 

My own opinion? Well, here are the benchmarks -- first column Sanders, second column Clinton.

You decide.




How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
I don't like the orators of ancient history; they tend to Babylon!