STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 1, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 546, Sanders 87 (Clinton +459).
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 91, Sanders 65 (Clinton +26). 
• 2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 

Latest Results

• South Carolina (53): Clinton 39, Sanders 14 (Clinton +25).
• Vote Spread: Clinton 73.5, Sanders 26.0 (Clinton +47.5).
• Versus Median Projection (Clinton +20): +27.5.

Next Primary: March 1 (Super Tuesday)

• Alabama (53), median Clinton +30.
• American Samoa (6): median tie.
• Arkansas (32), median Clinton +24.
• Colorado (66), median Sanders +11.
• Georgia (102), median Clinton +40.
• Massachusetts (91), median Sanders +11.
• Minnesota (77), median Sanders +21.
• Oklahoma (38), median Sanders +4.
• Tennessee (67), median Sanders +2.
• Texas (222), median Clinton +13.
• Vermont (16), median Sanders +83.
• Virginia (95), median Clinton +9.

Latest Polls

• Massachusetts (Suffolk): Clinton 50, Sanders 42 (Clinton +8).
• Alabama (Monmouth): Clinton 71, Sanders 23 (Clinton +48).
• Oklahoma (Monmouth): Sanders 48, Clinton 43 (Sanders +5).
• Texas (ARG): Clinton 58, Sanders 38 (Clinton +20). 
• Massachusetts (UMass Amherst): Clinton 47, Sanders 44 (Clinton +3).
• Michigan (MRG): Clinton 56, Sanders 36 (Clinton +20).
• Texas (Emerson): Clinton 68, Sanders 26 (Clinton +42).
• Massachusetts (Emerson): Clinton 54, Sanders 43 (Clinton +11).
• Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 70, Sanders 23 (Clinton +47).
• Oklahoma (SoonerPoll.com): Sanders 31, Clinton 40 (Clinton +9).

Current Polls-Plus Projections (from 538)

• Alabama: Clinton 73.8, Sanders 23.3.
• Arkansas: Clinton 64.1, Sanders 32.4.
• Georgia: Clinton 68.0, Sanders 28.9.
• Massachusetts: Clinton 52.4, Sanders 44.7.
• Oklahoma: Sanders 47.4, Clinton 47.3.
• Tennessee: Clinton 62.6, Sanders 34.0.
• Texas: Clinton 64.6, Sanders 32.4.
• Vermont: Sanders 86.9, Clinton 10.8.
• Virginia: Clinton 62.2, Sanders 34.7.
• Michigan: Clinton 60.5, Sanders 36.5.
• North Carolina: Clinton 59.4, Sanders 37.0. 
• Ohio: Clinton 59.8, Sanders 37.9. 
• Florida: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 30.9. 
• Illinois: Clinton 65.3, Sanders 30.6.

Current Endorsement Score (from 538)

• Clinton 475, Sanders 5.

Quick Glance at the GOP

• Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
• 538 Colorado and Minnesota Projection: Who the hell knows?
• Endorsement Score: Rubio 157, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.

Comments
It's Super Tuesday!!

Some interesting doings in Oklahoma yesterday: the Monmouth poll put Bernie in an almost decisive lead for some hours, and then at the last minute the SoonerPoll poll yanked it away. I honestly don't know what's going to happen in Oklahoma, or in what I call the "black box" states of Colorado and Minnesota. Those will be the three states to watch today.

So: who's going to win Super Tuesday? It's pretty much a given that Hillary is going to win more delegates, because most of these states favor her. But Bernie can still "win" Super Tuesday by gaining enough delegates to stay competitive, and to be able to pull ahead in later states. So how will we know?

FiveThirtyEight has a new delegate tracking feature, co-written by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. It's exactly what I've been wanting: a target track that excludes superdelegates and only shows pledged delegates. At present, Hillary's target is 76 delegates, and Bernie's is 59. They are up by 15 and down by 15, respectively.

According to this model, by the end of the day today, Hillary should have a total of 529 pledged delegates, and Bernie should have 492. Whoever exceeds their target number is winning the primary.  

Also, MattTX at DailyKos, a Bernie supporter and a very thorough numbers wonk who's done some impressive work, laid out a set of benchmarks for the worst case scenario for Bernie that still allows him to win. Here are the vote percentages and delegate count for Hillary under this scenario.

• Alabama: 62.1%, 32 delegates.
• Arkansas: 60.9%, 19 delegates.
• Colorado: 45.8%, 30 delegates.
• Georgia: 66.3%, 67 delegates.
• Massachusetts: 47.8%, 44 delegates.
• Minnesota: 47.2%, 36 delegates.
• Oklahoma: 52.1%, 21 delegates.
• Tennessee: 58.3%, 39 delegates.
• Texas: 59.5%, 132 delegates.
• Vermont: 14.1%, 0 delegates.
• Virginia: 58.8%, 55 delegates. 

Those are Hillary's numbers to beat; by comparing tomorrow's results to these numbers, we will know whether Bernie is still competitive in this primary, or whether we can safely stick a fork in his campaign. My own prediction, for what it's worth, is that Hillary will meet or exceed these numbers in every state but Oklahoma.

So when will we know? Here is a list of poll closing and caucus times.

• American Samoa: caucuses begin at 2pm EST (8am Samoan time).
• Georgia, Vermont and Virginia: polls close at 7pm EST. 
• Minnesota: caucuses begin at 8pm EST (7pm CST).
• Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee: polls close at 8pm EST.
• Arkansas: polls close at 8:30pm EST.
• Colorado: caucuses begin at 9pm EST (7pm MST).
• Texas: polls close between 8pm and 9pm EST. 

If you live in one of these states, remember to vote today! 

How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


Pun of the Day
You can't trust most electronics, but at least you can count on your calculator!