STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 5, 2016

63 Days to California, 14 Days to New York.


Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
• Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,264, Sanders 1,040 (Clinton +224). 
• Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,264/1,266 (-2), Sanders 1,040/1,038 (+2).
• 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
• Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A

Next Primary: TODAY

• Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
• 3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.

 

Comments
As you've probably figured out, I'm not posting State of the Primary every day. This is partly because of real life stuff, and partly because the race doesn't always change from day to day, and I don't always have stuff to talk about. 

Today, however, I can talk about Wisconsin. Bernie's target is 50 delegates out of 86, which is a popular vote spread of +15. FiveThirtyEight's projected vote spread is +3. Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, but it's not enough anymore just to win states; his long-forseen successes over this mid-March to mid-April period has not changed that. 

There are, as noted earlier, only four caucuses left in the race, and they total less than a hundred delegates. There are three fully open primaries, including today's primary in Wisconsin, and they total 190 delegates. Bernie cannot catch up with these states alone. As Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook recently noted, Bernie needs about 60% of the vote in the four remaining delegate-rich states -- New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey. The former two are closed primaries, the latter two are semi-closed. All have diverse populations. 

If we seem a bit more depressed and worried these days, if the prediction markets seem just a little bit down, if Bernie seems to be getting more than his share of headlines these days, it's because we're in the same position now that Bernie was at the beginning of March: the pendulum, obeying the inevitable laws of nature, is swinging on the other person's side. The difference is that Hillary built up a 320-delegate lead when it swung to her, and will probably lose only 120 while it swings to Bernie. Then it's New York and beyond.

So Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, as we have foreseen (although for a while there it looked like there may be an upset). Our job is to do what Bernie couldn't or wouldn't in the south: cut into that delegate margin as much as possible. Let's see how we do.
 

How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
I know how to juggle; I just don't have the balls to do it!