STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 2, 2016

66 Days to California, 17 Days to New York.


Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
• Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,266, Sanders 1,038 (Clinton +228). 
• Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,266/1,266 (+0), Sanders 1,038/1,038 (+0).
• 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
• Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A

Next Primary: April 5

• Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
• 3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.

 

Comments
Let's have a closer look at the new targets in April. In Wisconsin, Bernie needs 50 targets to Hillary's 36. He'll probably win Wisconsin, which is an open primary, but not by the 15 points he needs; it's going to be close either way. Wyoming is one of the four remaining caucus states, and he has a very good chance to nab the 57 points he needs.

How about New York, which Bernie needs to win by 4 points? They do like Bernie in New York, but it's Hillary's home state, and it's a closed primary. This means only Democrats can vote -- and the last day to register as a Democrat was March 25, which means there are going to be a lot of dismayed Bernie supporting independents showing up. It also has early voting, which favors Hillary. I think Hillary will win New York, but I don't dare speculate by how much, lest I jinx it.

Then the northeastern states. Four closed primaries and one semi-closed. Bernie is probably at least competitive in all five states, but he needs +7 in Pennsylvania, +13 in Connecticut, and +33 in Rhode Island. His targets are in the negatives in Maryland and Delaware, the last two states of the primary for which this is the case.

My prediction is that Bernie will finish April in a somewhat worse position than he started -- and with only a handful of states left to catch up.
 
 

How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
(From Treant) What do you call a group of birds who stick together? A Vel-crow!