STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 10, 2016

58 Days to California, 9 Days to New York.
 


Delegate Count 

• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,308, Sanders 1,096 (Clinton +212).
• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,777, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +650).
• 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
• Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).

Next Primary: TODAY

• New York: 247 delegates.
• 3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.

 

Comments
I was surprised. Were you surprised?

Something tells me the folks on the ground in Wyoming weren't that surprised. Thanks to their efforts, of the eight states of the Sanders Tunnel, Sanders won only six. Six and a half, if you feel like being generous. The media, and certainly Sanders' supporters, are painting Wyoming as a victory, because he did handily win the popular vote -- but if that's the metric that counts, Hillary, not President Obama, should have been the nominee in 2008. 

Now we're out of the tunnel, and back into states where, at best for Sanders, he and Hillary are in a real horse race. So let's consider some scenarios for New York.

First, because I'm still a pessimist, let's look at what I think is a worst-case scenario: Sanders takes 60% of the vote. He will gain 148 delegates to Sanders's 99, will exceed his target by 20 delegates, and his magic number, -- the percentage of remaining delegates he needs, currently 56.5% -- drops to 55.9%. (Frankly, if he can average 60% in all remaining states, he's got this in the bag, so it's not much use worrying about this one.)

If Sanders gets 55%, he will gain 136 delegates to Hillary's 111, exceeding his target by 8. However, his magic number goes up to 56.7%. So it's either better or worse for him, depending on which metric you look at.

Say there's a tie -- we'll give Sanders the odd delegate, so it's 124 to Hillary's 123. He comes in 4 delegates under target, and his magic number goes up to 57.6%. Bad news either way.

Say Sanders gets 48%. He gets 119 delegates to Hillary's 128. Nine delegates under target, and his magic number is 57.9%.

Finally, and this is the best scenario I dare consider, say Sanders gets 45%. Sanders gets 111 delegates to Hillary's 136. Seventeen delegates behind target, and his magic number is now 58.5%. So he'll be back to where he was before the Ides of March, or even a bit worse off, with most of his best states behind him.

Bernie is a New York native, but Hillary is well-loved there, and it's a closed primary. Don't count Sanders out of winning New York -- but don't bet the farm on it, either.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
The coffee at the mechanics' shop is break fluid!