STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 30, 2016 (Tabula Rasa Edition)

69 Days to California


Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
• Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1,038 (Clinton +230). 
• Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,268/1,268 (+0), Sanders 1,038/1,038 (+0).
• 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
• Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A

Next Primary: April 5

• Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
• 3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.

 

Comments
Nate Silver has completely reworked the targets for all states from here on out, taking into account current vote totals. Hillary needs 760 delegates to clinch the majority, and Bernie needs 988; the new targets reflect these numbers.

The good news for Bernie is, he now has a clean slate: he starts at zero, and controls his own destiny. The bad news is, his path from Wisconsin on is steeper. For example: 

• He now needs 50 delegates instead of 48 from Wisconsin, which is a popular vote margin of +15.
• He needs 11 delegates instead of 9 from Wyoming, which is a popular vote margin of +57. Based on how he's done in states like these so far, he can probably do that.
• He needs 128 delegates instead of 125 from New York, a popular margin of +4. He may be able to do that.  
• He needs 201 delegates instead of 189 from the northeastern states on April 26. In Pennsylvania, he needs a popular margin of +7.

And so on. Now taken individually, these new targets are all doable for Bernie. But he needs to do it in every single state from here on. If he only gets 48 delegates from Wisconsin, or two delegates short of target, then his target in (let's say) New York increases to 130. Then if he gets 125 from New York, those five delegates carry over into the northeastern states. And so on.

Is that likely? For that I'll give Mr. Silver the final word:

Frankly, none of it is at all likely. If the remaining states vote based on the same demographic patterns established by the previous ones, Clinton will probably gain further ground on Sanders. If they vote as state-by-state polling suggests they will, Clinton could roughly double her current advantage over Sanders and wind up winning the nomination by 400 to 500 pledged delegates.

How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


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