Thursday, March 24, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 24, 2016

Delegate Count 

  • Total Delegates: Clinton 1,690, Sanders 946 (Clinton +744).
  • Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 920 (Clinton +303). 
  • Versus Targets: Clinton 1,223/1,113½ (+109½), Sanders 920/1048½ (-128½).
  • 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
  • 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
  • Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

  • March 15: Sanders 73, Clinton 55 (Sanders +18); 3 not yet allocated.
  • Versus Targets: Sanders 73/74 (-1), Clinton 55/57 (-2).

Next Primary: March 26

  • Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
  • Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
 

Comments

FiveThirtyEight's allocated delegate count is being wonky again, and I'm sick of retroactive calculations, so I'm using the New York Times for both total and individual delegate counts. This will mean the count is different than yesterday, but it should only go up on both sides. Since allocation data is always coming in these days, these counts might change daily (so be sure to read every day!). 

The race will continue to narrow at least until Wisconsin, more likely until New York, and quite possibly until April 26 when five northeastern states vote. (I can already see the advertising for "Northeastern Tuesday." Better than "Super Tuesday 6," I guess.) This Saturday, of course, will be a very good day for Bernie; Hillary's job is simply to keep the margin of victory as low as she can. You can help her -- donate, make phone calls, canvas, whatever you can do. Every delegate counts.



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day  
Somebody wants me to use decimals instead of fractions. They have a point!

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