STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 29, 2016

70 Days to California


Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
• Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1037 (Clinton +230). 
• Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-128½).
• 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 
• Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates. 

Latest Results

• March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
• Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).

Next Primary: April 5

• Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
• Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.

 

Comments
Where do we stand today compared to where we stood in 2008?

Because the calendars and the number of delegates are so different between the two years, there are a few different ways to make the comparison. If we look at the percentage of delegates so far allocated, for example, which is about 57%, then we're at the same place as February 5, 2008, the end of Super Tuesday. (I know, there were a LOT of states that day!) On that day, Obama's lead over Hillary was 20 delegates.

That "20" doesn't tell the full story, though. Because there were 3,410 delegates up for grabs in 2008, as opposed to 4,051 today, we can adjust for "delegate inflation." So in today's delegates, his lead would be 24 delegates.

If we look at the number of contests so far held, 35, then we're in the same place as February 10, 2008, the day that Maine voted. On that day, Obama's lead was 75 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, that's 89 delegates.

If we look at the actual date, March 28, then we're at the point in 2008 where all but 10 contests have been decided. On that day, Obama's lead was 148 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, 176 delegates.

Obama's maximum lead over Hillary at any time was 151 delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 180 delegates. And at the end of it all, Obama's lead was 106 pledged delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 124 delegates.

At present, Hillary's lead over Bernie is 230 delegates.



How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


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