69 Days to California
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
- Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1,038 (Clinton +230).
- Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,268/1,268 (+0), Sanders 1,038/1,038 (+0).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
- Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
- Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
- 3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
Nate Silver has completely reworked the targets for all states from here on out, taking into account current vote totals. Hillary needs 760 delegates to clinch the majority, and Bernie needs 988; the new targets reflect these numbers.
The good news for Bernie is, he now has a clean slate: he starts at zero, and controls his own destiny. The bad news is, his path from Wisconsin on is steeper. For example:
- He now needs 50 delegates instead of 48 from Wisconsin, which is a popular vote margin of +15.
- He needs 11 delegates instead of 9 from Wyoming, which is a popular vote margin of +57. Based on how he's done in states like these so far, he can probably do that.
- He needs 128 delegates instead of 125 from New York, a popular margin of +4. He may be able to do that.
- He needs 201 delegates instead of 189 from the northeastern states on April 26. In Pennsylvania, he needs a popular margin of +7.
And so on. Now taken individually, these new targets are all doable for Bernie. But he needs to do it in every single state from here on. If he only gets 48 delegates from Wisconsin, or two delegates short of target, then his target in (let's say) New York increases to 130. Then if he gets 125 from New York, those five delegates carry over into the northeastern states. And so on.
Is that likely? For that I'll give Mr. Silver the final word:
Frankly, none of it is at all likely. If the remaining states vote based on the same demographic patterns established by the previous ones, Clinton will probably gain further ground on Sanders. If they vote as state-by-state polling suggests they will, Clinton could roughly double her current advantage over Sanders and wind up winning the nomination by 400 to 500 pledged delegates.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Ikea keeps calling me back for more, but all I wanted was one night stand!
70 Days to California
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
- Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1037 (Clinton +230).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-128½).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
- Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).
Next Primary: April 5
- Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
- Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.
Comments
Where do we stand today compared to where we stood in 2008?
Because the calendars and the number of delegates are so different
between the two years, there are a few different ways to make the
comparison.
If we look at the percentage of delegates so far allocated, for example, which is about
57%, then we're at the same place as February 5, 2008, the end of Super
Tuesday. (I know, there were a LOT of states that day!) On that day,
Obama's lead over Hillary was 20 delegates.
That "20" doesn't tell the full story, though. Because there were
3,410 delegates up for grabs in 2008, as opposed to 4,051 today, we can
adjust for "delegate inflation." So in today's delegates, his lead would
be 24 delegates.
If we look at the number of contests so far held, 35, then we're in
the same place as February 10, 2008, the day that Maine voted. On that
day, Obama's lead was 75 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, that's 89
delegates.
If we look at the actual date, March 28, then we're at the point in
2008 where all but 10 contests have been decided. On that day, Obama's
lead was 148 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, 176 delegates.
Obama's maximum lead over Hillary at any time was 151 delegates --
adjusted for inflation, 180 delegates. And at the end of it all, Obama's
lead was 106 pledged delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 124
delegates.
At present, Hillary's lead over Bernie is 230 delegates.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
This book on antigravity is impossible to put down!
71 Days to California
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
- Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1037 (Clinton +230).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-128½).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
- Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).
Next Primary: April 5
- Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
- Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.
Comments
Hillary got licked on Saturday; there's really no way to spin it, except to say we knew it was coming. She was up against a "perfect storm" of conditions: open caucuses in mostly white states with affluent liberals.
Even so, she could have performed better, as she did in Iowa by putting a laser-sharp focus on that state before its election. But she chose to save her money, spending only $54,000 in Washington. Bernie outspent her by a factor of 26 in that state. So he won big. You'd still rather have Hillary's numbers today than Bernie's numbers, but Bernie took a big step toward her on Saturday.
Now that's done. It's behind us, and we turn our attention to the remainder of the primary. Here's a quick look ahead:
Of the 22 contests remaining, 4 are caucuses, 9 are open, semi-open, or semi-closed primaries, and 9 are closed primaries.
Bernie is 10 for 14 in caucuses. The caucuses that remain give a total of 88 delegates.
Bernie is 4 for 17 in open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries
(and there's really not a huge difference here, except that semis keep
out Republicans). The open and semi-* primaries that remain give a total
of 882 delegates.
Bernie is 1 for 4 in closed primaries, the one being Democrats
Abroad. The closed primaries that remain give a total of 759 delegates.
The next state to vote, Wisconsin, is an open primary. I'm still doing my best to avoid sharing polling data and projections, but let's just say that we can win it, and should pour our hearts into volunteering in and for the Badger state over the next 8 days.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
A Bernie supporter tried to annoy me with bird puns, but toucan play at that game!
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,691, Sanders 949 (Clinton +742).
- Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 920 (Clinton +303).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,223/1,113½ (+109½), Sanders 920/1048½ (-128½).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 15: Sanders 73, Clinton 55 (Sanders +18); 3 not yet allocated.
- Versus Targets: Sanders 73/74 (-1), Clinton 55/57 (-2).
Next Primary: March 26
- Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
- Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
Comments
Happy Washington Day! Or, as we might as well just go ahead and call it, Bernie Saturday.
In addition to picking up the bird vote, apparently, Bernie is expected to sweep today's three states offering a total of 142 pledged delegates, and by wide margins. Bernie followers had days like today on South Carolina Day, Super Tuesday, and March 15 -- although the latter two were much bigger wins for Hillary than today will be for Bernie. They weren't fun days for Bernie fans, and today won't be fun for Hillary fans. That's just the way the calendar shakes down.
The demographic targets for today are Bernie 81, Hillary 61. If they hit those targets, Hillary's lead will be down to 283 delegates, and she will need 42.0% of all remaining delegates. (She's at 42.1% now.)
Let's be pessimistic, however, and say that Bernie completely blows Hillary out of the water, winning 111 to 31. Yes, that bad. It's 77.6% of today's delegates, or slightly less than what he managed earlier this week in Idaho and Utah. That's probably a worst realistic case scenario, but I believe in preparing for the worst. If that happens, Hillary's lead will be down to 223 delegates, and she will need 43.7% of all remaining delegates.
My guess is that the results will be somewhere between these two scenarios, but let us be mentally prepared for the 111-31 scenario. It could happen.
A few things to keep in mind, however. First, whatever happens, Hillary's lead over Bernie will still be considerably larger than Obama's lead over Hillary ever was in 2008. Second, a Bernie blowout today, which will likely be the best day left for him in the primary, will only marginally decrease the difficulty of his task in the rest of the states. Third, despite any notions of momentum people may carry, any political wonk worth his or her salt would rather have Hillary's numbers than Bernie's.
So today, we take our licks. Tomorrow is Easter. Monday, we start working our asses off for Wisconsin, New York, and Northeastern Tuesday.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Murder by dagger is difficult, but I'll take a stab at it!
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,690, Sanders 946 (Clinton +744).
- Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 920 (Clinton +303).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,223/1,113½ (+109½), Sanders 920/1048½ (-128½).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 15: Sanders 73, Clinton 55 (Sanders +18); 3 not yet allocated.
- Versus Targets: Sanders 73/74 (-1), Clinton 55/57 (-2).
Next Primary: March 26
- Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
- Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
Comments
FiveThirtyEight's allocated delegate count is being wonky again, and I'm sick of retroactive calculations, so I'm using the New York Times for both total and individual delegate counts. This will mean the count is different than yesterday, but it should only go up on both sides. Since allocation data is always coming in these days, these counts might change daily (so be sure to read every day!).
The race will continue to narrow at least until Wisconsin, more likely until New York, and quite possibly until April 26 when five northeastern states vote. (I can already see the advertising for "Northeastern Tuesday." Better than "Super Tuesday 6," I guess.) This Saturday, of course, will be a very good day for Bernie; Hillary's job is simply to keep the margin of victory as low as she can. You can help her -- donate, make phone calls, canvas, whatever you can do. Every delegate counts.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Somebody wants me to use decimals instead of fractions. They have a point!
