STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 25, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 505, Sanders 71 (Clinton +433)
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).

Latest Results

• Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
• Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
• Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +2.

Next Primary

• South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
• Median projection (538): Clinton +11.

Latest Polls

• Texas (Emerson): Clinton 56, Sanders 40 (Clinton +16).
• New Jersey (Rutgers-Eagleton): Clinton 55, Sanders 32 (Clinton +23).
• Maryland (Goucher College): Clinton 58, Sanders 28 (Clinton +30).
• Texas (KVTV/Dixie Strategies): Clinton 61, Sanders 29 (Clinton +32).
• Texas (Crosswind Media): Clinton 66, Sanders 26 (Clinton +40).
• Texas (SurveyUSA): Clinton 61, Sanders 32 (Clinton +29). 
• Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall): Clinton 48, Sanders 27 (Clinton +21).
• Texas (Monmouth): Clinton 64, Sanders 30 (Clinton +34). 

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)

• South Carolina: Clinton 65.4, Sanders 30.9.
• Arkansas: Clinton 65.2, Sanders 31.4.
• Georgia: Clinton 73.4, Sanders 22.9.
• Massachusetts: Clinton 49.9, Sanders 47.0.
• Oklahoma: Clinton 53.0, Sanders 43.4 .
• Tennessee: Clinton 65.9, Sanders 31.0.
• Texas: Clinton 66.8, Sanders 30.2.
• Vermont: Sanders 86.0, Clinton 11.7.
• Virginia: Clinton 62.8, Sanders 34.1.
• Michigan: Clinton 61.8, Sanders 35.3.
• North Carolina: Clinton 61.2, Sanders 35.3. 
• Ohio: Clinton 61.5, Sanders 36.3.

Current Endorsement Score (538)

• Clinton 473, Sanders 3.

Quick Glance at the GOP

• Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
• 538 Georgia Projection: Cruz 36, Trump 26, Rubio 23.
• Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.

Comments
Five days to Super Tuesday!

For any number of reasons, probably including Harry Reid's endorsement of Hillary, she has gone up in all the projected vote spreads by about half a point. Additionally, there was a whole batch of Texas polls released yesterday, all of them bad news for Bernie. He is now projected to lose to Hillary by over 35 points in the third-largest state by delegate count.

We also now have a projection for Ohio, which is worth 143 delegates. If the projection holds, and the undecideds split evenly, Hillary will take 90 delegates to Bernie's 53.

A few more superdelegates thrown into the mix, to Hillary's benefit. No changes are expected in the pledged delegates, of course, until South Carolina -- only two days away!


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


Pun of the Day
I always wear my watch onto the airplane; it makes time fly!