STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 24, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 503, Sanders 70 (Clinton +433)
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).

Latest Results

• Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
• Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
• Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +2.

Next Primary

• South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
• Median projection (538): Clinton +11.

Latest Polls 

• Texas (UT/Texas Tribune): Clinton 54, Sanders 44 (Clinton +10).
• Ohio (Quinnipiac): Clinton 55, Sanders 40 (Clinton +15). 
• Georgia (FOX 5 Atlanta): Clinton 57, Sanders 29 (Clinton +28).
• Texas (Emerson): Clinton 56, Sanders 40 (Clinton +16).
• New Jersey (Rutgers-Eagleton): Clinton 55, Sanders 32 (Clinton +23).
• Maryland (Goucher College): Clinton 58, Sanders 28 (Clinton +30).    

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)

• South Carolina: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.2.
• Arkansas: Clinton 64.7, Sanders 31.8.
• Georgia: Clinton 73.1, Sanders 23.2.
• Massachusetts: Clinton 49.4, Sanders 47.5.
• Oklahoma: Clinton 52.5, Sanders 43.9.
• Tennessee: Clinton 65.4, Sanders 31.4.
• Texas: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.1.
• Vermont: Sanders 86.4, Clinton 11.3.
• Virginia: Clinton 62.4, Sanders 34.5.
• Michigan: Clinton 61.4, Sanders 35.8.
• North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.

Current Endorsement Score (538)

• Clinton 473, Sanders 3.

Quick Glance at the GOP

• Pledged Delegates: Trump 81, Cruz 17, Rubio 17.
• 538 Georgia Projection: Trump 31, Rubio 30, Cruz 21.
• Endorsement Score: Rubio 139, Cruz 34, Kasich 20.

Comments
Six days to Super Tuesday!

New polls from New Jersey and Maryland show Hillary with solid leads in those states. A new Texas poll confirms that Hillary's lead there is not as overwhelmingly huge as we thought, but she's not in danger of ceding a significant number of delegates to Bernie in the Lone Star State. I still would like to see polls from Colorado and Minnesota; their absence has become conspicuous . . .

From now until Super Tuesday, the GOP state projection will cycle through a few of the Tuesday states one at a time; I can't be bothered to maintain all 12.

This is where State of the Primary lives from now on. Feel free to post comments below!


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.

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Pun of the Day
They cut off my left side. Don't worry, I'm all right now!