STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 29, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 544, Sanders 85 (Clinton +459).
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 91, Sanders 65 (Clinton +26). 
• 2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 

Latest Results

• South Carolina (53): Clinton 39, Sanders 14 (Clinton +25).
• Vote Spread: Clinton 73.5, Sanders 26.0 (Clinton +47.5).
• Versus Median Projection (Clinton +20): +27.5.

Next Primary: March 1 (Super Tuesday)

• Alabama (53), median Clinton +30.
• American Samoa (6): median tie.
• Arkansas (32), median Clinton +24.
• Colorado (66), median Sanders +11.
• Georgia (102), median Clinton +40.
• Massachusetts (91), median Sanders +11.
• Minnesota (77), median Sanders +21.
• Oklahoma (38), median Sanders +4.
• Tennessee (67), median Sanders +2.
• Texas (222), median Clinton +13.
• Vermont (16), median Sanders +83.
• Virginia (95), median Clinton +9.

Latest Polls

• Tennessee (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 60, Sanders 34 (Clinton +26).
• Texas (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 59, Sanders 38 (Clinton +21).
• Georgia (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 64, Sanders 30 (Clinton +34).
• Virginia (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 39 (Clinton +20).
• Texas (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 61, Sanders 37 (Clinton +24).
• Georgia (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 63, Sanders 35 (Clinton +28).
• Massachusetts (Suffolk): Clinton 50, Sanders 42 (Clinton +8).

Current Polls-Plus Projections (from 538)

• Arkansas: Clinton 64.4, Sanders 32.2.
• Georgia: Clinton 70.1, Sanders 26.7.
• Massachusetts: Clinton 51.8, Sanders 45.1.
• Oklahoma: Clinton 52.1, Sanders 44.3.
• Tennessee: Clinton 65.2, Sanders 31.6.
• Texas: Clinton 65.5, Sanders 31.7.
• Vermont: Sanders 86.6, Clinton 11.1.
• Virginia: Clinton 62.7, Sanders 34.3.
• Michigan: Clinton 60.9, Sanders 36.2.
• North Carolina: Clinton 59.8, Sanders 36.7. 
• Ohio: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.5. 
• Florida: Clinton 66.6, Sanders 30.6. 
• Illinois: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 30.3.

Current Endorsement Score (from 538)

• Clinton 474, Sanders 4.

Quick Glance at the GOP

• Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
• 538 Massachusetts Projection: Trump 43, Rubio 24, Kasich 18.
• Endorsement Score: Rubio 155, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.

Comments
Happy Leap Day, and happy Super Tuesday Eve!

A bit of a bump for Bernie in all races' projections, possibly owing to the fact that he picked up his fourth endorsement from a member of Congress. (Hillary's endorsement score remains 474.) Also some good news for Bernie in a few states above, which are reflected in a greater or lesser narrowing in those races. Hillary continues to exceed the median in those states, however.

Bernie is focusing on five Super Tuesday states: Colorado and Minnesota (caucus states), Massachusetts and Oklahoma (states in which he has closed the polls to a reasonable margin behind Hillary), and Vermont (of course). These five states offer a total of 288 delegates. The remaining states, in which Hillary is heavily favored (except for American Samoa, for which there is no data), offer a total of 577 delegates. 



How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


Pun of the Day
Don't tell the builder how to do his job; he doesn't take constructive criticism!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 28, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates: Clinton 544, Sanders 85 (Clinton +459).
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 91, Sanders 65 (Clinton +26). 
• 2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
• 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority. 

Latest Results

• South Carolina (53): Clinton 39, Sanders 14 (Clinton +25).
• Vote Spread: Clinton 73.5, Sanders 26.0 (Clinton +47.5).
• Versus Median Projection (Clinton +20): +27.5.

Next Primary: March 1 (Super Tuesday)

• Alabama (53), median Clinton +30.
• American Samoa (6): median tie.
• Arkansas (32), median Clinton +24.
• Colorado (66), median Sanders +11.
• Georgia (102), median Clinton +40.
• Massachusetts (91), median Sanders +11.
• Minnesota (77), median Sanders +21.
• Oklahoma (38), median Sanders +4.
• Tennessee (67), median Sanders +2.
• Texas (222), median Clinton +13.
• Vermont (16), median Sanders +83.
• Virginia (95), median Clinton +9.

Latest Polls

• Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Clinton 49, Sanders 44 (Clinton +5). 
• Florida (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25). 
• Florida (Quinnipiac): Clinton 59, Sanders 33 (Clinton +26). 
• Virginia (Roanoke College): Clinton 50, Sanders 33 (Clinton +17). 
• South Carolina (Emerson): Clinton 60, Sanders 37 (Clinton +23). 
• Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 68, Sanders 22 (Clinton +46). 
• Illinois (We Ask America): Clinton 57, Sanders 28 (Sanders +29). 

Current Polls-Plus Projections (from 538)

• Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
• Georgia: Clinton 72.8, Sanders 23.7.
• Massachusetts: Clinton 52.2, Sanders 44.8.
• Oklahoma: Clinton 52.7, Sanders 43.7 .
• Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
• Texas: Clinton 66.6, Sanders 30.3.
• Vermont: Sanders 86.1, Clinton 11.6.
• Virginia: Clinton 63.5, Sanders 33.1.
• Michigan: Clinton 61.5, Sanders 35.6.
• North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8. 
• Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.8. 
• Florida: Clinton 67.3, Sanders 30.0. 
• Illinois: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 29.6.

Current Endorsement Score (from 538)

• Clinton 474, Sanders 3.

Quick Glance at the GOP

• Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
• 538 Massachusetts Projection: Trump 43, Rubio 24, Kasich 18.
• Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.

Comments
Everyone knew that Hillary would win South Carolina. I've known for some time now that she would win big. I don't think many people knew that she would win this big. Supporters of both candidates are still reeling.

For perspective: Bernie won New Hampshire by 22 points and six delegates. Hillary won South Carolina by 47 points and 25 delegates. Not even the mainstream media could spin this as a "virtual tie." Nor even can Bernie's campaign spin this as merely a "decisive victory." This was, to quote CNN's John King, a thrashing.

The decisive factor, to be sure, was African Americans in South Carolina. Turnout reached record highs, and they broke for Hillary 84-16. If turnout and swing continue to even approach these levels in the states to come, Bernie -- with apologies to his supporters -- does not stand a chance. 

For Hillary fans, the question is not if, but when. I know that there are any number of good reasons, from Bernie's point of view, for him to stay in the race. But the fact remains: We're going to have our work cut out for us in the general, and the sooner Bernie concedes, the sooner Hillary can give her undivided attention to taking down the Donald.   


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


Pun of the Day
Last night I dreamed that I had written Lord of the Rings. My wife said I was Tolkien in my sleep!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 27, 2016

Delegate Count 

• Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 505, Sanders 71 (Clinton +433)
• Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).

Latest Results

• Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
• Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
• Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +5.

Next Primary

• South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
• Median projection (538): Clinton +20.

Latest Polls

• Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Clinton 49, Sanders 44 (Clinton +5). 
• Florida (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25). 
• Florida (Quinnipiac): Clinton 59, Sanders 33 (Clinton +26). 
• Virginia (Roanoke College): Clinton 50, Sanders 33 (Clinton +17). 
• South Carolina (Emerson): Clinton 60, Sanders 37 (Clinton +23). 
• Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 68, Sanders 22 (Clinton +46). 
• Illinois (We Ask America): Clinton 57, Sanders 28 (Sanders +29). 

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)

• South Carolina: Clinton 67.0, Sanders 28.7.
• Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
• Georgia: Clinton 72.8, Sanders 23.7.
• Massachusetts: Clinton 52.2, Sanders 44.8.
• Oklahoma: Clinton 52.7, Sanders 43.7 .
• Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
• Texas: Clinton 66.6, Sanders 30.3.
• Vermont: Sanders 86.1, Clinton 11.6.
• Virginia: Clinton 63.5, Sanders 33.1.
• Michigan: Clinton 61.5, Sanders 35.6.
• North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8. 
• Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.8. 
• Florida: Clinton 67.3, Sanders 30.0. 
• Illinois: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 29.6.

Current Endorsement Score (538)

• Clinton 474, Sanders 3.

Quick Glance at the GOP

• Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
• 538 Virginia Projection: Trump 40, Rubio 30, Cruz 15.
• Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.

Comments
Happy South Carolina Day! Polls close at 7:00 PM EST; expect the major networks to call the state for Hillary at 7:00:02 or thereabouts.

The question will be, how much will she win by? 538's median projection, which Bernie needs to beat to start catching up to Hillary, is Hillary +20. That is, if Bernie comes within 20 points of Hillary, he should get the delegates he needs. The Cook Political Report scorecard, which takes currently declared superdelegates into account and therefore is not quite as accurate (because the superdelegates will most likely end up supporting whoever wins the most pledged delegates) puts the delegate target at Hillary 27, Bernie 26.

If the current 538 projection holds, Hillary will earn 36 delegates from South Carolina, leaving 17 for Bernie. This will give Hillary a total of 88 pledged delegates, and Bernie a total of 68.

To be honest, that's not a great margin for either candidate's supporters. Bernie fans would obviously like for him to have more delegates, and Hillary fans want the primary to be over with already so that she can turn the full force of her rhetoric toward the Republicans. If the projections for Super Tuesday hold, however, and if Colorado and Minnesota (still both living in a black box, which is hell for numbers wonks like me!) don't swing dramatically in Bernie's favor, the margin will be much larger on Wednesday morning.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


Pun of the Day
Did you hear about the Norwegian bird analyzer? It Scandinavian!