48 Days to California.
Delegate Count
-
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,444, Sanders 1,207 (Clinton +237).
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,946, Sanders 1,245 (Clinton +701).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 582 pledged delegates, 41.6% of remaining.
- Sanders needs 819 pledged delegates, 58.5% of remaining.
Latest Results: April 19
- New York: Clinton 139, Sanders 108 (Clinton +31).
- Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.
- Versus Adjusted Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.
Next Primary: April 26
- CT, DE, MD, PA, RI: 384 delegates total.
- 3/30 Targets: Sanders 201, Clinton 183.
- Adjusted Targets: Sanders 221, Clinton 163.
Comments
Out of the month-long dark tunnel, into the bright sunshine!
Yesterday, before the New York election results came in, Nate Silver considered three possible scenarios for New York. If Bernie won by a few points, it would be, not merely a shitstorm, but a "shit hurricane." It would be a bigger upset than Michigan, and would signify real trouble for Hillary's campaign. If Hillary won by a few points, it would be a setback for Sanders, but he would get positive press coverage because he managed to set expectations so low. Lastly, if Hillary won by fifteen points, it would signal that Hillary will do well in states like Pennsylvania, and would signal that it is almost impossible for Sanders to catch up.
Hillary won by sixteen points.
There's really not much need to spin these numbers, is there? 1,400 pledged delegates remain to be allocated, and Sanders needs 819 of them. If any numbers wonk knows of a way he can get them, he or she is awfully good at keeping it a secret.
How This Works
Unless
otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight
except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their
mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate
would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the
nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are
needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.
Pun Of The Day
I just can't picture myself taking selfies!
52 Days to California, 3 Days to New York.
Delegate Count
-
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,305, Sanders 1,099 (Clinton +206).
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,774, Sanders 1,130 (Clinton +644).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 721 pledged delegates, 43.8% of remaining.
- Sanders needs 927 pledged delegates, 56.3% of remaining.
Latest Results
- Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
- Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
- Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A
Next Primary: TODAY
- New York: 247 delegates.
- 3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
- Adjusted Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Comments
Where the hell have I been?
I started my new job this week. It would take a long time for me to explain what a big deal this is for me, and you have more important things to think about. Like New York! But as I said earlier, expect more sporadicity from SotP from now on.
Hillary is widely favored to win New York tonight -- which, Sanders fans will gleefully note, gives him a chance to pull off another Michigan. On the one hand, no one who's been paying attention can deny that Bernie's overall numbers are on the rise; had some earlier states voted today, she might not have done as well. (Or, considering the demographics, she might have; Nate Silver tried to run a retrogression, but there are just too many unknowns.) On the other hand, it's a closed primary in a state that loves Hillary.
Like you, I'm anxious to see how it will turn out. Keep your fingers crossed.
How This Works
Unless
otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight
except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their
mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate
would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the
nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are
needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.
Pun Of The Day
No wonder my geometry students were so tired; they were out of shape!
52 Days to California, 3 Days to New York.
Delegate Count
-
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
- Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.
Latest Results
- Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
- Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
- Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 19
- New York: 247 delegates.
- 3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
- Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.
Comments
I was playing an MMO late last night and chatting to my guild mates, when I looked at the clock and realized it was 12:01 AM.
Me: Oh crap.
Them: What's wrong?
Me: It's my birthday.
Them: Happy birthday! How old are you now?
Me: Old enough to say "oh crap" when it's my birthday.
Them: :-(
But enough about me: let's look at the Democratic electorate as a whole. Nate Silver (you see his name a lot around here, and for excellent reason) calculated that the Democratic vote for the upcoming general election will be 54% white, 24% black, 15% Hispanic, and 7% Asian or other races. The ten states whose voting demographics most closely match those numbers are, in order, New Jersey, Illinois, Florida, New York, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Maryland, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
Guess what. Of the seven of those ten states that have voted, Hillary won them all. Of the other three, Hillary is favored to win them.
So yeah. Sanders supporters mean well and all, but Hillary is the true face of the Democratic Party.
How This Works
Unless
otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight
except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their
mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate
would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the
nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are
needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.
Pun Of The Day
When kissing a florist, tulips are better than one!
53 Days to California, 4 Days to New York.
Delegate Count
-
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
- Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.
Latest Results
- Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
- Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
- Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 19
- New York: 247 delegates.
- 3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
- Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.
Comments
I've been looking at betting exchanges again this year. In 2012 I looked steadily at InTrade, which is now defunct; this year I'm looking at BetFair, which works differently; rather than percentage chance to win, it simply gives decimal odds.
Right now, the back/lay for Hillary to win is 1.10/1.11. That means if you want to bet a dollar that Hillary will win the nomination, the most any anti-Hillary person will give you is $1.10. And if you want to bet a dollar against Hillary winning, the least amount any pro-Hillary person will accept if she wins is $1.11 -- that is, you will owe him $1.11. If you offer a higher amount, such as 5 bucks, the pro-Hillary crowd will snatch it up. If you offer less, such as 1.05, the pro-Hillary crowd will still take it -- but not while someone else is offering $1.11.
The back/lay for Sanders is 10/12.5. You bet a dollar on Sanders winning the nomination, you get 10 if he wins. You bet against him and he wins, you lose $12.50.
Another way of looking at it is the standard ___-to-one format. The odds against Bernie are ten to one. The odds against Hillary are a scant 1.1 to one.
Yet another way to look at it is implied percentage, which can be obtained simply by taking the reciprocal of the decimal. One over 1.1 is 0.91, which means Hillary's implied chance of winning is 91%. One over ten, of course, is 10%; that's Sanders' chance of winning.
(By the way, I know a lot of people are looking at PredictWise, but since the formula for that site is still pretty new, I prefer to look at straight betting. Prognostication is one of the few things the free market is really, really good at.)
How This Works
Unless
otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight
except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their
mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate
would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the
nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are
needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.
Pun Of The Day
The article on Japanese sword fighters is quite lengthy, but I can samurais it for you!
54 Days to California, 5 Days to New York.
Delegate Count
-
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
- Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.
Latest Results
- Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
- Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
- Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 19
- New York: 247 delegates.
- 3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
- Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.
Comments
This Democratic primary has been a pollster's worst nightmare. Michigan is the most obvious example, but take also states like South Carolina, where the polls predicted an easy Hillary win, but failed to predict the utter and complete blowout she achieved.
I've been looking over the polling aggregates for states that have already voted, and it seems to me the problem is that, with respect to states that they got wrong, pollsters can't seem to pin down a working model; this is evidenced by the fact that, in states that were wrong, the polls tended to be all over the place. In the days before Michigan, for instance, the polls ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +37. In South Carolina, they ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +50 (and +50 is in fact what she achieved). In Oklahoma, they ranged from Clinton +16 to Sanders +5. And so on.
Weeks have passed, states (and territories) from every geographical and demographical region have voted, and the big pollsters have been burning the midnight oil trying to get their models correct. No one will bet the farm that they have it right, of course, but I for one feel safe dipping my feet into the waters of prognostication once again.
In New York there have been ten polls over the past couple weeks, and they range from Clinton +10 to Clinton +18. That's very narrow compared to the above states. Moreover, any pro-Sanders "insurgency effect" will be offset by the exclusion of independents from the closed primary. (Frankly, the New York closed primary rules do need some revision; Trump's own kids can't vote for him, not having registered in time! But for now, they do work against the low-information Sanders voter.)
The average of all these polls is Clinton +12.9. If that holds, Hillary will take about 140 delegates, bringing her magic number to 41.4% of remaining votes. If we take the low end of the range, Clinton +10, she gets 136 delegates and her magic number is 41.6%. For more pessimistic outcomes, see my April 10 SotP. For more optimistic outcomes, consult a more optimistic numbers wonk.
Whatever happens on Tuesday, however, Sanders will have only 1,400 delegates remaining to catch up to Hillary.
How This Works
Unless
otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight
except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their
mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate
would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the
nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are
needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.
Pun Of The Day
I wanted to teach chemistry, but after periodic doubts I decided I was out of my element!
