Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,681, Sanders 937 (Clinton +744).
- Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,233, Sanders 929 (Clinton +304).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,233/1,113½ (+119½), Sanders 929/1048½ (-119½).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 15: Sanders 74, Clinton 57 (Sanders +17).
- Versus Targets: Sanders 74/74 (+0), Clinton 57/57 (+0).
Next Primary: March 26
- Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
- Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
Comments
Bernie won the night last night, his blowout wins in Idaho in Utah more than cancelling out Hillary's quite comfortable win in Arizona. As you can see by the targets, in the end both candidates performed exactly as the demographics predicted they would.
Which is not good news for Bernie. He needs to drastically overshoot his targets in order to stand a chance. And the pool of available delegates is shrinking: despite taking 17 more delegates than Hillary yesterday, his percentage of remaining delegates needed went up by a tenth of a percent. He has 21 states and 4 territories left to make up this difference.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I don't care for perchloroethyline, and I don't like glycol ether.
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,630, Sanders 870 (Clinton +760).
- Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,176, Sanders 855 (Clinton +321).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,176/1,056½ (+119½), Sanders 855/974½ (-119½).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
- Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
- Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).
Next Primary: TODAY
- Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
- Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Happy Arizona Day! (The media is calling it Western Tuesday, but to hell with that, I'm calling it Arizona Day.)
Bernie is currently 1,171 delegates shy of the nomination. He needs 58.0% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
A total of 131 delegates are up for grabs from today's three states. Demographically, Bernie is expected to win 74 of them, or 56.5%. If he does this, he will gain 17 delegates on Hillary, and will need 58.1% of all remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So his job actually gets harder if he performs as per his demographic advantage.
If he outperforms expectations, and wins, let's say, 85 delegates (or 64.9%), he will gain 39 delegates on Hillary, and will need only 57.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
On the other hand, if he ties with Hillary -- let's say he wins 66 to Hillary's 65 -- then obviously he gains only one delegate on Hillary, and will need 58.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
Either way, after today the pool of contests, which started with 50 states and 7 territories (including Democrats Abroad) will be down to 21 states and 4 territories.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
If you Russia round and Ukraine your neck, don't Crimea river!
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
- Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
- Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
- Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).
Next Primary: March 22
- Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
- Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Happy Spring!
The results of the Democrats Abroad vote is in, and Bernie picked up a net gain of 5 delegates (results taken from the Democrats Abroad website). This should not be surprising to anyone; for Democrats living abroad, their main link to what's happening back home is usually social media, and Bernie has already demonstrated mastery over social media. I'm a little surprised he didn't win by more.
As it is, this win cancels out about one-quarter of his net loss from Ohio.
Democrats Abroad is one of three contests where some poor delegate would have to be chopped in half in order for both candidates to meet their target. Once the DA results are factored in, Bernie's deficit against target will be down to 119½ delegates.
Bernie supporters are already near-impossible to convince that the time has come for unity. After the news about DA's results -- which can indeed be called a landslide, in the same sense that the waves destroying a little kid's sand castle is a landslide -- I'm sure they will become flat-out impossible.
Folks in Arizona, Idaho and Utah, be sure to vote tomorrow!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
My brother used to be a banker, but then he lost interest!
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
- Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
- 2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Next Primary: March 22
- Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
- Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
The Bernie campaign has been making noises about not conceding at all, about trying to sway superdelegates to his side right up until the roll call vote at the convention. Don't believe it. By not conceding, he gains nothing; no superdelegate will switch their vote to someone who has not gained a majority of pledged delegates. Also, by not conceding, he loses any leverage he has over the Party in exchange for putting up a united front.
The only real reason to not concede would be spite. Bernie Sanders is many things, but I don't believe he's spiteful.
At least I hope not.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Why yes, I did have a hand in the puppet show!
Delegate Count
- Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
- Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
- 2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
- 2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
- Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
- March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
- Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Next Primary: March 22
- Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
- Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
The final delegate estimates for the March 15 states are in, and Hillary has come in 32 delegates ahead of target, for a total of +122 against target.
As Bernie supporters have gleefully pointed out, we are now over the hill: most of the remaining states favor Bernie by small margins. Thus, there's an excellent chance we will see the absolute margin of 326 delegates shrink. However, this has nothing to do with the targets. Bernie could win every state that he is supposed to win, by the margins that he is expected to win by, and at the end he will be 122 delegates short of a majority. It's not enough to outperform Hillary; he has to outperform himself.
Which he did in Illinois, coming in an impressive 7 delegates above target. But in Florida? 26 delegates below target. That has been his pattern so far: one step forward, three steps back. Narrow wins in some states, huge losses in others. He banked on headlines, while Hillary banked on math. Sporadic wins in states like New Hampshire and Michigan gave Bernie some headlines -- but Hillary has had the math from day one.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total
delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins
in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared
their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their
mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I couldn't take care of the plants, because I hadn't botany!
